Thursday, August 12, 2010

Spacing Out

It's kind of humbling to think that, after this fall, once the last couple of Space Shuttle missions are flown, that'll be the end of America's manned space flight program -- we've had that going for something like 50 years, and there won't be anything after that. B1 was asking me what was going to replace the Shuttle (he teared up when I told him it would be the last flights of the Shuttle), and I said "Well, there's nothing made, yet. There are concepts and so forth, but there isn't anything in play, yet, at least for manned flight." He was disappointed.

But in these times, it's hard to imagine a program like that being continued, especially in the absence of, say, a Moon base. Maybe if the US had gone whole-hog on a weaponization of space program, some kind of orbital weapons platform, we'd have a vigorous manned presence up there, but barring that, there's little enthusiasm for it -- we'll go up there for the wrong reasons, dammit -- but exploration? Nah. Barring a weaponizing of space (which we're still likeliest to do), I guess there's the corporatification (sure, why not? A new word!) of space, where private interests go up there and try to establish claims.

Even then, however, the logistics of it are daunting. There's venture capitalism, and there's VENTURE capitalism, and space-prospecting is almost ludicrously difficult to conceive and execute, let alone turn a profit. There's a reason why space programs were historically nationalized. And even the US really only went hard after a space program because it was wary of the Soviets having too much of a lead on them -- so much of the Space Race was a nationalistic/militaristic exercise, not wanting the Russkies to have an edge on us in space. They still thought in terms of the ultimate high ground, whether Earth orbit or even the Moon, before the strategists realized that particularly the Moon was just unrealistic militarily, and ultimately useless. And enthusiasm waned. There is some irony to be found in it, however -- the US does not object to throwing money into money pits -- we did that in Vietnam, we did it (and are doing it) in the Drug War, we have done it in the Middle East. Of course, there are ginned-up justifications for those various money holes, whereas space exploration, I guess the void is just too apparent there for any justification to be accepted.

All the same, this fall will see the end of an era in American history, and it makes me a little sad. Other, more financially solvent (and nationalistically ambitious) nations will pursue their own space programs, and maybe that'll spur another American Space Race, an urge not to be left behind on this. Or maybe we'll just be too busy cutting our own throats to bother looking skyward. Who knows? I kind of think the latter case -- if paving roads, having libraries and public schools, and fixing bridges is somehow controversial, then how can one possibly justify having a space program?

Our astronauts will likely have other, more immediate concerns by then...