Anyway, when the Republicans lost the White House, the drumbeat for war with Iran was somewhat muted, although the war drums did pick up volume at two discrete intervals in the Obama years, among DC policy elites. And now that's kicking up again, with more force than I've seen before, so I'm more than a little worried that our country is seriously contemplating a war with Iran.
This would be a disaster for our country, and an apocalypse for Iran. I really, really hope we don't do this. I remember reading up about Iran and seeing that its rank-and-file populace had several key qualities:
- They liked American culture -- yes, they disliked our government's hostility to their own country, but the people of Iran had a surprisingly positive view of America. Sadly, their rank-and-file were far more positive about Americans than the rank-and-file American is about Iranians.
- They were more than a little disenchanted with the reactionary theocracy that has ruled Iran since the 70s. The Iranian Revolution has failed to help everyday Iranians live better, and they know this. Much of that revolution's energy came from Iranian resistance to the dictatorship of the Shah (who was our man in Iran for generations)
Now, left to its own devices, I believe that Iran's theocracy will eventually be toppled by a "Persian Spring" much in the way that the Arab Springs have been scuttling dictatorships throughout the Middle East (again, dictatorships America has supported for decades).
The ONE THING that could give a shot in the arm to the theocrats in Iran would be -- you got it -- American invasion of Iran. It would be exactly what those dunderheads would need to unit their guardedly pro-American populace against an invading foreign nation.
It's very frustrating, because if our country pursued peaceful diplomacy with Iran, engagement instead of aggression, it would put the theocrats at odds with their own populace, and would erode what little legitimacy those creeps have on the reins of power.
But our foreign policy is so tone-deaf to this kind of stuff, that I'm worried that we're going to rush headlong into war with Iran and have a fight on our hands that is far worse than the Pyrrhic victories in Iraq and Afghanistan. And it's just so damned needless, even by our own standards of pointless warmongering.
A war in Iran, should it actually occur, will be a disaster, and will set back healing the wounds between the US and Iran for a generation or more.
Obama has, unfortunately, governed much like the "third term" of the Bush/Cheney co-presidency, continuing so much of their policies that it's caused this country incredible harm. It would be a terrible shame if he continued along that path and went to war with Iran.
So, I'm hoping we're not stupid in this, but hoping against American stupidity is like hoping that the sun isn't going to rise. And, yes, cynics will point out that Iran has tons of oil (and, gee, that wouldn't possibly motivate us to go to war, now would it?) but the vastly larger population in Iran, the terrain, and everything about it would make Iraq seem like a walk in the park by comparison.
And it would absolutely give those tottering theocrats -- who are in serious danger of being consumed and overturned by their own people in a few years -- a stranglehold on power as they sought to unite their country against "The Great Satan."
The above opinion is, of course, completely outside of the mainstream. The "Beltway Consensus" about Iran is something like this: "We should invade them NOW." (hawk position) or "We should invade them LATER." (dove position) -- and it's sad but true, reflecting just how little range of opinion is allowed in this issue of vital national importance.
Our country does not need another pointless foreign war. We really, really need investment at home, not squandering money abroad.
